AccuWeather’s long-range forecast predicts a warm and early spring for much of the central and southern United States, with temperatures expected to be 2-4 degrees Fahrenheit above historical averages. However, the northern half of the country may experience a delayed spring, with lingering winter-like conditions and potential for late-season snow.
“Spring is a season of change, and it will feel like a temperature roller coaster ride for millions of people this year,” said AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok. “Winter will overstay its welcome in parts of the Northeast. For many in the South, it will feel like summer arrived early in the middle of spring.”
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The first weeks of spring may feel more like winter across the northern half of the U.S. Extensive ice cover on the Great Lakes, a result of the coldest January since 2011, is expected to suppress temperatures in the Northeast and Midwest.
Pastelok warns of potential ice jams and flooding along rivers in the Midwest and northern Plains as warmer temperatures cause ice to break up. The last frost of the season may also arrive later than usual in these regions, potentially impacting farmers and gardeners.
“The frost threat may last into the early to middle part of May,” Pastelok cautioned.
The interior Northeast and Midwest could even see some late-season snow, which, combined with the chilly air, could benefit ski resorts in the East.
The Pacific Northwest is also expected to experience a colder start to spring due to persistent stormy weather.
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In contrast, 18 states across the southern and central U.S. are predicted to see above-average spring temperatures, with the Southwest potentially experiencing temperatures more than 4 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.
However, this warmth comes with concerns about drought. “The Southwest will remain dry and heat up quickly,” Pastelok warned. “Drought will expand and intensify throughout the region from Southern California to the southwestern Plains. We are concerned that there’s going to be some low rivers and reservoirs going into the interior Southwest this coming spring, and that will really have an impact for the rest of 2025.”
The combination of drought and warm weather could increase wildfire risk in these regions.
The traditional “Tornado Alley” may see a decrease in severe weather this spring, with the focus shifting towards the Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley. “Chicago, St. Louis and Memphis are all cities to watch this spring,” Pastelok said.
Moisture and warmth from the Gulf of Mexico could contribute to increased severe weather activity in these areas. However, the Florida peninsula is expected to avoid most severe weather threats, potentially experiencing an early onset of summer-like heat and drought by May.
The La Niña climate pattern, characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, is expected to continue into spring. Even if La Niña ends during the spring, its effects on weather patterns could linger.
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist and Climate Expert Brett Anderson notes that average spring temperatures in the U.S. have increased by roughly 2 degrees Fahrenheit since 1970. This warming trend can lead to earlier and more intense allergy seasons, faster mountain snowmelt, and longer growing seasons, but also increases the risk of pests like ticks and mosquitoes.
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