AccuWeather’s team of long-range forecasters is predicting a shift in the primary zone of tornado activity for 2025, with the highest risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes moving east of the traditional “Tornado Alley” in the Plains.
The Mississippi and Tennessee valleys are expected to face the brunt of the severe weather this year, a change from the concentration of tornadoes in the Plains states during 2023 and 2024.
“Families and businesses across the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys need to prepare for a stormy spring,” said AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok. “This forecast is concerning because more people are in harm’s way, compared to Tornado Alley.”
READ: UPDATE: Firefighters Extinguish Massive Blaze At Tampa Storage Facility After 9-Hour Battle
2025 Tornado Forecast
AccuWeather predicts 1,300-1,450 tornadoes will touch down across the United States in 2025. While this is lower than the preliminary count of 1,855 tornadoes in 2024, it is still slightly above the historical average of 1,225.
The increase in severe weather activity outside of the traditional Tornado Alley is attributed to several factors, including a persistent area of high pressure over the Southwest and exceptionally warm water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico.
The severe weather season has already begun, with a few widespread severe weather events expected throughout March in the southern and central U.S. The risk of severe thunderstorms is predicted to increase in April and become more widespread by May, when a shift in the overall weather pattern will allow for more storms across the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and parts of Tornado Alley.
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist and Climate Expert Brett Anderson notes that a warming climate can contribute to more impactful and dangerous severe thunderstorms.
READ: Major Storms To Bring Snow, Severe Weather, And Fire Risk To Millions Across US
“Our warming atmosphere can hold more moisture, unleashing intense rainfall rates that can trigger dangerous flash flooding,” Anderson said. “As water temperatures continue to increase in the Gulf, warmer air with more moisture can be forced northward into the Southern states ahead of a cold front, providing an extra boost of energy for severe thunderstorms that can produce tornadoes.”
AccuWeather experts urge residents in the areas at risk to prepare for severe weather by reviewing safety plans and ensuring storm shelters and safe rooms are ready for use and stocked with supplies.
“The AccuWeather app is the best resource to keep your family safe as the spring severe weather season kicks into high gear,” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter. “Severe weather warnings are delivered faster by the AccuWeather app than any other source, and that’s proven. That advance notice can provide you with more time to get your family to safety.”
It is crucial to remember that tornadoes can occur in any state and during any month of the year. Having multiple ways to receive severe weather warnings, including the AccuWeather app and NOAA Weather Radio, is essential for staying safe during severe weather events.
Please make a small donation to the Tampa Free Press to help sustain independent journalism. Your contribution enables us to continue delivering high-quality, local, and national news coverage.
Connect with us: Follow the Tampa Free Press on Facebook and Twitter for breaking news and updates.
Sign up: Subscribe to our free newsletter for a curated selection of top stories delivered straight to your inbox.
