Even though November marks the final month of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics are showing signs of life. AccuWeather forecasters are monitoring the western and central Caribbean Sea, where conditions are ripe for the development of a new tropical depression or storm in the coming days.
“As we move later into the tropical season, we typically look closer to home for tropical development. The areas of concern are typically focused in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and off the Southeast coast of the United States,” AccuWeather Lead Expert Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva said.
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Warm ocean waters, both at the surface and at depth, are providing ample fuel for potential tropical systems.
AccuWeather meteorologists anticipate an increase in showers and thunderstorms in the Caribbean next week. The key factor will be wind shear, which is expected to be low.
“I know there will be showers and thunderstorms in this zone next week. The question is the wind shear. If there is low wind shear, which we expect, I think we will be getting a tropical depression or storm to form,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
Tropical systems that develop from this gyre can be slow to organize, potentially leading to days of stormy weather and rough seas in the Caribbean before a depression or storm officially forms.
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Historically, late-season storms in this region tend to track toward Central America or curve north-northeastward towards Cuba, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas. However, a track towards Florida or the southeastern U.S. cannot be ruled out at this early stage.
AccuWeather experts are urging residents in the Caribbean, Mexico, and the southeastern U.S. to stay informed and be prepared for potential tropical impacts in November. The next name on the list of Atlantic storm names for 2024 is Patty.
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