AccuWeather is warning of a potential major hurricane forming in the Caribbean Sea. Exceptionally warm ocean temperatures and low wind shear are creating ideal conditions for rapid intensification.
“We’ll likely be dealing with a hurricane as we head into this weekend. There is increasing confidence that a tropical storm will develop in the central to western Caribbean later this week,” explained AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. “We could be dealing with a storm that rapidly intensifies into a major hurricane in these very conducive conditions. The atmosphere is primed for development.”
The next named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be Tropical Storm Sara.
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“The Ocean Heat Content, which is how deep the warm waters extend below the surface of the ocean, is at record levels for the time of the year in the Caribbean. The depth of the 80-degree temperature line extends 300-400 feet down below the surface of the ocean in the western Caribbean. This can act like rocket fuel for developing tropical storms or hurricanes,” said DaSilva. “The wind shear in the western Caribbean is also expected to be low over the next 10 days. The low wind shear, combined with the exceptionally high Ocean Heat Content, can lead to rapid development over the coming weekend.”
While the exact track of the storm is still uncertain, there’s a possibility that it could impact Florida next week.
“A frontal boundary that could stall over the Caribbean islands would provide upward motion to boost the development of showers and thunderstorms,” Rayno explained. “With extremely warm waters and very low wind shear, there’s little in the way that could prevent this storm from quickly strengthening. This will likely be our 12th hurricane of the season.”
READ: NHC: Tropical Depression Likely To Form In The Caribbean
Storm Track Uncertainty: Florida Could Be in the Path
Hurricane experts have identified two potential scenarios for the storm’s path:
- Westward Track: A stronger area of high pressure to the north could steer the storm westward toward Central America.
- Northward Turn: If the high pressure weakens, the storm may veer north, posing a significant threat to Florida.
“Everyone along Florida’s Gulf Coast needs to keep a close eye on this system,” DaSilva warned.
Florida and Southeast U.S. on Alert
AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter emphasized the need for preparedness as the storm approaches the final weeks of hurricane season.
“These exceptionally warm waters will act like high-octane fuel, making rapid storm intensification likely,” Porter said. “We’ve been warning of an active final stretch to the season, and this developing system could extend storm threats well into December.”
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Rain and Flooding Concerns Across the Gulf Coast
Meteorologists are also tracking a combination of moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Rafael and an incoming low-pressure system, which could bring heavy rain and thunderstorms from the Gulf Coast through the Tennessee Valley midweek. Several inches of rain are expected, potentially leading to localized flooding, but also offering relief to areas experiencing drought conditions.
Additional AccuWeather Resources:
- Tropical Storm Sara Likely to Form in Caribbean, Could Threaten Florida
- 2024 Hurricane Season Names: Is Your Name on the List?
- AccuWeather Hurricane Tracker
Residents in the affected areas are advised to stay informed and prepare for potential impacts as forecasts are updated.
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