AccuWeather forecasts significant rainfall and potential flash flooding from Saturday through Election Day across parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, and Iowa.
This weather system will bring warm conditions ahead of it, which could result in thunderstorms in cities like Little Rock, Memphis, and possibly extending as far north as southern Illinois.
According to AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok, thunderstorms and lightning could pose risks for voters waiting outside, emphasizing the importance of checking the forecast on the AccuWeather app before heading to the polls.
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“It will be warm out ahead of this front, so we expect some thunderstorms in places like Little Rock, Memphis, and maybe as far north as southern Illinois. The lower to mid-Mississippi Valley extending into the western Tennessee Valley could be dealing with thunderstorms on Election Day,” said Pastelok. “The forecast for thunderstorms and lightning could be disruptive and even dangerous, especially if there are people outside waiting in line to vote. Check the forecast on the AccuWeather app before heading to the polls.”
Rain is also anticipated across regions of the Upper Midwest, Ohio Valley, the Great Lakes, and New England, where voters can access hourly forecasts and AccuWeather’s MinuteCast® and Lightning Alerts for updates. Lightning Alerts provide notifications within 10 miles of a user’s location, helping voters stay informed and safe.
In hurricane-impacted areas of Florida, Georgia, eastern Tennessee, and the Carolinas, AccuWeather predicts pleasant weather on Election Day. These areas, which recently faced hurricanes Helene and Milton, have prepared temporary polling locations due to storm damage, though AccuWeather experts are keeping a close watch for any changes in the forecast.
The East Coast should enjoy warm, dry conditions from Boston to Florida along the I-95 corridor, minimizing weather-related disruptions. However, in parts of Colorado, Nebraska, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, Oregon, Nevada, Utah, and northern Arizona, voters may experience colder weather, with potential snow showers west of Denver and north of Flagstaff on November 5.
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AccuWeather Senior Vice President and Election Weather Expert Evan Myers explains that although extreme weather on Election Day has historically impacted voter turnout, early voting options have lessened this effect in recent years. Still, hurricane damage may have a more substantial influence on voter logistics, particularly in places like North Carolina, where polling stations may be unavailable.
Rain could also influence voter turnout in critical swing states, such as Wisconsin, where heavy rain might dampen Republican turnout in rural areas while impacting urban centers like Milwaukee. In Texas, rain and thunderstorms in cities like Houston, Austin, and San Antonio could affect voter turnout in close state and local races, particularly if storms coincide with long lines at polling stations.
Myers highlights that adverse weather on Election Day may impact younger voters more than older ones, who are typically more committed to voting.
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Historically, Congress established Election Day as the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November, a period chosen to avoid interfering with spring planting or winter weather, reflecting the agricultural roots of American society in the 1840s.
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