As November approaches, marking the final month of the Atlantic hurricane season, the western Caribbean Sea is showing signs of potential tropical development. AccuWeather meteorologists are closely monitoring the region for the formation of a new tropical depression or storm.
“As we move later into the tropical season, we typically look closer to home for tropical development. The areas of concern are typically focused in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and off the Southeast coast of the United States,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
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Warm waters and a weather pattern known as the Central American Gyre contribute to favorable conditions for tropical development. This gyre, which is more active at the beginning and end of hurricane season, is expected to generate numerous downpours across the Caribbean next week. These downpours could lead to flash floods and mudslides, regardless of whether a named storm forms.
While these late-season storms can be slow to develop, they can also intensify rapidly. Hurricane Oscar, which recently formed in the Atlantic, serves as a prime example, strengthening from a tropical rainstorm to a hurricane in just one day.
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“I know there will be showers and thunderstorms in this zone next week. The question is the wind shear. If there is low wind shear, which we expect, I think we will be getting a tropical depression or storm to form,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
The potential storm track remains uncertain.
“From a climatological standpoint, tropical storms that form in this area late in October and early in November tend to track into Central America or possibly to the north-northeast toward Cuba, Hispaniola and the Bahamas. However, a track into Florida or the southeastern U.S. mainland is not out of the question at this early juncture,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.
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AccuWeather experts are urging residents in the Caribbean, Mexico, and the southeastern U.S. to remain vigilant and prepared for potential tropical impacts throughout November. The next name on the list for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is Patty.
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