Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is considering launching a Republican primary challenge against Sen. John Cornyn in the 2026 Senate race, setting the stage for what could be one of the most expensive and closely watched intraparty battles of the election cycle.
Paxton confirmed to Punchbowl News on Tuesday that he is seriously exploring a bid, arguing that Cornyn is out of step with Texas Republicans and vulnerable in a primary challenge.
“I think it’s just time,” Paxton said. “He’s had his chance. He hasn’t performed well, and the voters know it. You can go a long time without people paying attention. And they’re paying attention now.”
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Paxton acknowledged that securing $20 million in campaign funds will be a crucial factor in his final decision.
“I think I can win if I have $20 million,” he told Punchbowl News, adding that he is working on securing financial commitments over the next several months before making a formal announcement.
Meanwhile, Cornyn, a seasoned fundraiser and longtime Texas Republican powerhouse, ended 2024 with more than $4.12 million on hand, according to Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings. The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), the Senate GOP’s campaign arm, is expected to back the incumbent, making it an uphill battle for Paxton.
Recent polling data from the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin suggests Paxton could pose a serious challenge to Cornyn in a Republican primary.
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Among GOP-identifying voters:
- Paxton has a 62% approval rating
- Cornyn is underwater at 49% approval
Among all Texas voters:
- Paxton’s approval rating stands at 37%
- Cornyn is at 30%
“I’ve run these primaries in Texas before. I honestly don’t see how [Cornyn] overcomes his numbers,” Paxton said. “If the numbers were the other way, I wouldn’t be sitting here.”
Paxton has sought to portray Cornyn as insufficiently conservative, particularly on gun rights and foreign policy.
- He criticized Cornyn for supporting increased background checks for gun buyers under 21 and funding state enforcement of red flag laws after the 2022 Uvalde school shooting.
- He slammed Cornyn over his votes to send billions in military aid to Ukraine, arguing the Texas senator was prioritizing foreign interests over domestic concerns.
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Cornyn, however, has aligned himself closely with Trump in recent months. On March 6, he praised Trump’s efforts to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war, and in January, he introduced a bill to allow concealed carry license holders to carry firearms across all states—a move likely aimed at shoring up support from pro-Second Amendment voters.
“After 23 years, he’s finally got a real opponent—potential opponent—and he’s gonna do that, right?” Paxton said, implying Cornyn was tacking right only because of a looming primary challenge. “Voters are not stupid. Like suddenly he veers to the right? We’re less than a year from the primary now. And as soon as it’s over… he goes back to being John Cornyn.”
Despite the brewing primary challenge, Cornyn remains a formidable incumbent with deep ties to Texas donors, establishment Republicans, and the Senate GOP leadership.
Although he failed in his bid to replace Sen. Mitch McConnell as Senate Republican Leader, Cornyn retains a high-profile role on the Senate Finance Committee, where he is expected to help extend the 2017 Trump tax cuts.
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Cornyn’s campaign has not directly commented on Paxton’s potential challenge, but a Cornyn adviser told the Texas Tribune last week that the senator is fully committed to seeking a fifth term in 2026.
With less than a year until the Texas GOP primary, Paxton is expected to finalize his decision in the coming months, with fundraising serving as the determining factor.
If Paxton enters the race, the Cornyn-Paxton showdown could become one of the most expensive and divisive primaries in Texas history, testing the influence of Trump-aligned conservatives against the Republican establishment.
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