Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum vowed Tuesday to slap retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods in response to President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on Mexican imports, which took effect at midnight. The escalating trade spat, sparked by Trump’s Monday announcement in the Roosevelt Room, threatens to plunge North America into a full-blown trade war, with Sheinbaum set to unveil Mexico’s targeted products Sunday in a public event at Mexico City’s central plaza—a potential olive branch amid the chaos.
“There is no motive or reason, nor justification that supports this decision that will affect our people and our nations,” Sheinbaum declared, slamming Trump’s move as baseless. Her measured tone hints at a last-ditch hope to de-escalate tensions, but with U.S. duties now live, Mexico’s counterpunch seems imminent.
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Trump’s tariffs, also hitting Canada at 25% and stacking an extra 10% on China atop last month’s 10%, aim to choke fentanyl flows and illegal crossings—issues he says Mexico and Canada have failed to curb despite a February reprieve.
“Tomorrow—tariffs 25% on Canada and 25% on Mexico. And that’ll start,” Trump told reporters Monday, brushing off a one-month pause granted after Sheinbaum deployed 10,000 National Guard troops and Canada bolstered enforcement. “They promised action, but I’m not seeing it,” he added, doubling down with a 20% total levy on Chinese goods. U.S. markets tanked—the Dow shed 2% by midday—as the tariffs threaten $2 trillion in annual North American trade, from Mexican avocados to Canadian lumber.
Sheinbaum’s reveal could signal Mexico’s strategy: hit U.S. exports hard—think pork, steel, or bourbon—or play it cool to salvage talks.
“We’ve been forced to respond,” she said last month, touting 20 million fentanyl doses seized since October as proof of Mexico’s efforts. Trump’s team, unmoved, calls it too little, too late, echoing his campaign pledge to wield tariffs as a cudgel against drugs and migration—despite crossings plunging 95% since January, per CBP.
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The fallout’s already rippling. Canada’s vowed 25% counter-tariffs on $155 billion in U.S. goods, and China’s mulling a World Trade Organization fight.
Economists warn of a double whammy: U.S. consumers could see car prices spike $3,000 and grocery bills swell, while Mexico’s GDP might shrink 4% if the trade war drags on, per Grupo Financiero Base. “This isn’t just about fentanyl—it’s a sledgehammer,” said EY-Parthenon’s Gregory Daco.
As Trump’s border Stryker brigade flexes muscle and his tax-cut push heats up, Sheinbaum’s next move—confrontation or conciliation—could tip the scales. For now, North America’s supply chains brace for impact, and Sunday’s plaza speech looms as a make-or-break moment.
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