A new benchmark poll conducted by M3 Strategies reveals that crime is the dominant issue for Chicago voters, with Mayor Brandon Johnson facing overwhelming disapproval as the 2025 mayoral race begins to take shape.
The poll, which surveyed 696 likely Chicago voters from February 20-21, 2025, provides critical insights into voter priorities, candidate favorability, and early preferences for the next mayoral election.
The poll found that 67% of Chicago voters identify crime as the city’s biggest issue, far outpacing other concerns such as high taxes (54%) and inflation (41%).
Issues like LGBTQ+ rights (3%) and reproductive freedoms (4%) ranked among the lowest priorities, highlighting the urgency voters place on public safety and economic challenges.
Mayor Brandon Johnson’s tenure has left him deeply unpopular among Chicagoans. A staggering 79.9% of voters disapprove of his job performance. Only 6.6% hold a favorable view of the mayor, resulting in a net favorability rating of -73.3%. Johnson’s low approval underscores the challenges he faces as he seeks re-election in a crowded field.
In a hypothetical mayoral election, former mayoral candidate Paul Vallas leads the pack with 27.4% support, followed by Illinois Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias at 21.0%. Johnson trails far behind at just 8.2%, signaling an uphill battle for the incumbent.
Other potential candidates, including Illinois Comptroller Susana Mendoza (11.7%) and State Representative Kam Buckner (6.3%), also lag behind Vallas and Giannoulias.
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The poll also measured favorability ratings for potential mayoral candidates:
- Alexi Giannoulias: 49% favorable, 14% unfavorable
- Paul Vallas: 41% favorable, 34% unfavorable
- Susana Mendoza: 38% favorable, 15% unfavorable
- Kam Buckner: 18% favorable, 15% unfavorable
- Bill Conway: 15% favorable, 12% unfavorable
Giannoulias and Vallas enjoy the highest name recognition and favorability, while lesser-known candidates like Buckner and Conway struggle with low visibility, with over 35% of voters saying they’ve never heard of them.
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The poll also provides a snapshot of Chicago’s electorate:
- 2024 Presidential Vote: 70.9% supported Kamala Harris, while 18.0% backed Donald Trump.
- Age: 38% of respondents were aged 46-64, while 30.1% were 65 or older.
- Race/Ethnicity: 43% identified as White, 27% as Black or African American, and 18.8% as Hispanic or Latino.
- Ideology: 39.8% identified as moderate, while 23.3% described themselves as somewhat liberal/progressive and 19.7% as very liberal/progressive.
The poll highlights the growing dissatisfaction with Mayor Johnson’s leadership, particularly on the issue of crime, which remains the top concern for Chicago voters. With early preferences favoring Paul Vallas and Alexi Giannoulias, the 2025 mayoral race is shaping up to be a competitive contest.
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