Punxsutawney Phil, the world’s most famous groundhog, emerged from his burrow early this morning and saw his shadow, thus predicting six more weeks of winter. However, history shows that Phil’s predictions are often inaccurate.
Each year on February 2nd, Groundhog Day, thousands of people gather in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, or watch online as Phil makes his prognostication. According to tradition, if the groundhog sees his shadow, winter will persist for six more weeks. If he doesn’t see his shadow, spring will arrive early.
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This year, Phil saw his shadow, disappointing those hoping for an early spring. However, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports that Phil’s predictions have only been accurate about 30% of the time in recent years.
The Groundhog Day tradition has its roots in Candlemas Day, an early Christian holiday marking the midpoint between the winter solstice and the spring equinox. Europeans believed that bright, clear weather on Candlemas Day signified a prolonged winter, while cloudy conditions indicated an early spring.
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German settlers brought the tradition to America, substituting a groundhog for the European hedgehog.
Data suggests that an early spring prediction may become more reliable due to shorter winters, although this winter has been unusually cold in many parts of the US.
Despite Phil’s prediction of six more weeks of winter, meteorological forecasts suggest a mixed outlook. The northwestern U.S. is expected to experience a colder-than-average start to February, while the rest of the country may see above-average temperatures in the coming weeks.
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