Russian President Vladimir Putin escalated his campaign of reflexive control against Ukraine and its Western allies on November 21, launching a dramatic ballistic missile strike on critical Ukrainian infrastructure in Dnipro City. The attack, which employed advanced missile systems and experimental weaponry, comes amid heightened tensions over Western military support for Ukraine and repeated Kremlin saber-rattling.
The coordinated strike targeted Dnipro City in Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, hitting industrial facilities, residential areas, and a medical center. According to Ukrainian officials, the attack involved:
- A Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ballistic missile launched from Tambov Oblast.
- Seven Kh-101 cruise missiles from Volgograd Oblast, six of which Ukrainian air defenses intercepted.
- An experimental medium-range ballistic missile with multiple reentry vehicles, reportedly a modified RS-26 “Rubezh” intermediate-range missile, fired from Astrakhan Oblast.
READ: Ukraine Launches Successful Combined Strike On Russian Military Assets Using Drones, Western Weapons
Although Ukrainian air defenses successfully downed the majority of the missiles, some caused damage to an industrial site, believed to be the Pivdenmash factory that manufactures missiles and space rockets, as well as residential and medical facilities. Additional strikes were reported in Kryvyi Rih, damaging residential areas.
In a nationally televised address, Putin characterized the missile strikes as a response to Ukraine’s use of ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles against Russian military targets and alleged NATO “aggression.” Notably, he highlighted the use of a new “Oreshnik” non-nuclear ballistic missile, likely an experimental variant of the RS-26 missile.
Putin warned Western countries against enabling Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory, threatening military retaliation against Western nations. His rhetoric aligns with past Kremlin statements outlining “red lines” meant to deter Western military aid to Ukraine, including specific warnings about the provision of long-range weapons.
Despite Putin’s escalatory threats, Western analysts have noted inconsistencies in the Kremlin’s rhetoric and actions. Putin’s prior warnings about Western support—whether related to the provision of rocket artillery, tanks, or warplanes—have failed to materialize into meaningful retaliatory actions.
READ: U.S. Green Lights Ukraine To Use American-Supplied Land Mines Against Russia
Moreover, Ukraine has long targeted territories the Kremlin claims as part of Russia, including Crimea, which Russia annexed illegally in 2014. Ukrainian forces have used Western-provided missiles such as ATACMS and Storm Shadow to strike Crimea and other Russian-held areas since early 2023 without significant Kremlin retaliation.
Analysts suggest that Putin’s escalation often occurs irrespective of Western military decisions. While his rhetoric intensifies as the war drags on, the Kremlin’s failure to act on its “red lines” undermines its escalation narrative. Putin’s November 21 statement reflects a pattern of rhetorical threats designed to instill fear rather than tangible escalation against the West.
Implications for Ukraine and the West
This latest strike underscores the high stakes of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the increasing sophistication of its military capabilities. However, it also highlights the resilience of Ukrainian defenses and the critical importance of sustained Western support.
READ: Putin Updates Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine After U.S. Greenlights Ukrainian Long-Range Missile Strikes
As Putin continues to shift the rhetorical goalposts, Western nations face a delicate balancing act: providing Ukraine with the tools to defend itself while avoiding an unnecessary escalation in direct confrontation with Russia.
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