Russian forces are adapting their long-range strike tactics to include both decoy Shahed drones and Shahed drones equipped with thermobaric warheads. This shift appears aimed at confusing and straining Ukrainian air defenses while maximizing the impact of their attacks.
On Saturday, the Associated Press (AP) reported that the Alabuga Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in Russia, responsible for assembling Iranian-supplied Shahed drones, has been producing “hundreds” of decoy drones and recently began equipping some with thermobaric warheads.
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A Ukrainian military and electronics specialist informed the AP that over half of the recent long-range strike drones launched by Russia are decoys. According to Colonel Yuriy Ihnat, Acting Head of the Ukrainian Air Force Press Office, these decoys are indistinguishable from armed Shahed drones on radar, compelling Ukrainian forces to expend ammunition and deploy electronic warfare (EW) systems to intercept them.
The AP noted that Russia’s strategy aims to deplete Ukrainian air defenses, increasing the chances for more potent weapons like cruise and ballistic missiles to penetrate Ukrainian airspace.
The use of decoy drones enables Russian forces to identify the locations of Ukrainian air defense systems before they are intercepted. To enhance the resilience of these drones against jamming, Russia has incorporated various electronic components, including Ukrainian SIM cards and Starlink systems.
The Ukrainian Air Force has increasingly reported sightings of unidentified strike drones — likely the new decoy variants — during nightly drone and missile assaults. Furthermore, an uptick in drones “lost” within Ukrainian airspace suggests that Ukrainian EW countermeasures have been effective in disrupting these decoy drones. Despite their low cost, the longer these decoys linger in the sky, the more they distract air defenses and aid in targeting for subsequent Russian strikes.
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Notably, Russian forces did not deploy any decoy drones during the overnight attacks from November 14 to 15, marking the first such absence in weeks.
Regarding the thermobaric drones, the Ukrainian expert stated that these were introduced by Russian forces in the summer of 2024 and now constitute about three to five percent of the long-range strike drones deployed against Ukraine.
Recent reports indicate that these thermobaric warheads weigh between 50 to 52 kilograms and are being used on Shahed drones with extended ranges of up to 140 kilometers. A weapons analyst explained that thermobaric drones are particularly devastating against buildings and could inflict severe damage on key infrastructure such as power plants, which are vital for supporting Ukraine’s defense capabilities and heating during winter.
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The Kremlin is likely to continue refining its long-range drone strategies, potentially escalating the use of decoy drones and drones equipped with more substantial or dangerous payloads. This approach seems aimed at outmaneuvering Ukrainian air defenses and maximizing the impact of strikes ahead of the winter season.
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