A tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea has the potential to develop into a tropical depression later this week.
While the system is currently disorganized, favorable environmental conditions are expected to support its development. As the system moves slowly westward, it could bring heavy rainfall and strong winds to parts of Central America and the Caribbean.
“Get ready for Sara. We expect the next tropical storm to develop in the Caribbean this week,” said AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno. “The development process is already underway. There are showers and thunderstorms around Hispaniola that will move west. The storms will get a boost on Wednesday when wind shear starts to fade away. A front will provide more upward motion by midweek, helping these storms organize.”
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AccuWeather has issued a high risk for tropical development in the western Caribbean between November 14-18. Meteorologists note that wind shear north of the Caribbean could initially hinder the storm’s movement, but this natural barrier may weaken, allowing the storm to move northward later in November.
Residents in the region are advised to monitor weather forecasts and be prepared for potential impacts from this developing system.
Communities across Central America, southeastern Mexico, Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico are advised to stay vigilant as tropical activity increases, with the potential for heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms beginning midweek.
“Don’t let your guard down just because the calendar says we’re heading into mid-November. Conditions and water temperatures in the tropics are still primed for tropical storms to form in the final weeks of hurricane season,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. “History shows that Florida faces a higher risk of tropical impacts than any other state during the month of November.”
AccuWeather’s late October forecast predicted a final burst of tropical activity, with one to three named storms expected in November. The month has already seen Subtropical Storm Patty and Hurricane Rafael develop in its first week.
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“We still have exceptionally warm waters heading into mid-November. Ocean heat content, or the depth that warm waters reach beneath the surface, is at record levels for this time of year in the Gulf of Mexico,” said DaSilva. “Ocean heat content is near record levels for mid-November in the Caribbean. These warm waters will provide extra fuel for any storms that can develop in the next few weeks.”
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