Tropical Storm Rafael is gaining strength in the Caribbean Sea and is expected to become a hurricane soon, posing a significant threat to the Cayman Islands and Cuba.
Strengthening Storm:
Satellite imagery indicates that Rafael is becoming better organized, with increasing convection and a developing eyewall. Hurricane Hunter aircraft have recorded winds approaching 50 knots (57 mph), and further intensification is expected.
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Forecast Track:
Rafael is moving northwestward and is forecast to pass near or over the Cayman Islands tonight, bringing the potential for hurricane conditions. The storm is then expected to reach western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday.
After crossing Cuba, Rafael is predicted to enter the Gulf of Mexico, but the long-range track remains uncertain.
Potential Impacts:
- Cayman Islands: Hurricane conditions, including damaging winds, dangerous storm surge, and destructive waves, are expected tonight.
- Cuba: Hurricane conditions are also expected in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday.
- Jamaica: Tropical storm conditions are expected through early this afternoon.
- Florida Keys: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Lower and Middle Keys beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday night.
- Northern Gulf Coast: It is still too early to determine the potential impacts on the northern Gulf Coast.
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Heavy Rainfall:
Heavy rain is expected across portions of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica and Cuba, through early Thursday.
This rainfall could lead to flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in higher terrain areas. Heavy rain is also forecast to spread into Florida and the southeastern U.S. by mid to late week.
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