After months of intense campaigning, Election Day 2024 has arrived with former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris locked in a closely contested race.
As Americans head to the polls, questions remain about when a winner will be declared and which states might experience delays in reporting results.
Early Indicators in the South: Georgia and North Carolina
Georgia and North Carolina, both critical swing states, could provide early clues on the race’s direction. With polls closing at 7 p.m. ET in Georgia and 7:30 p.m. ET in North Carolina, results from these states could shape each candidate’s path to the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win.
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Trump narrowly lost Georgia to President Joe Biden by just 0.2% in 2020. Trump’s path to victory likely depends on retaining his 2020 map while flipping either Georgia or Pennsylvania. While Trump won North Carolina by a slim 1.3% margin in 2020, it remains highly competitive heading into Tuesday.
Impact of Harris Wins in Key States
If Harris secures both Georgia and North Carolina, it could reduce the focus on traditionally Democratic-leaning states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. However, if Trump takes these Southern states, Harris would need to rely on support from other swing states like Arizona, Nevada, and Michigan, which may take longer to finalize.
Swing Counties in Georgia and Pennsylvania
In Georgia, voter turnout in specific areas like Gwinnett and Cobb counties may provide insight into the race. In 2020, Biden won Cobb County by 14 points, and Sen. Raphael Warnock carried it by 16 points in 2022. A slight swing in these areas could have a significant impact. Gwinnett County, once a Republican stronghold, saw Biden receive 60% of the vote in 2020, making it a key area to watch for Harris supporters.
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Similarly, suburban counties around Philadelphia in Pennsylvania are expected to play a crucial role. These areas have leaned increasingly Democratic in recent elections, while rural parts of Pennsylvania remain solidly Republican. Early and mail-in ballots can be processed starting at 7 a.m. ET on Tuesday, which could expedite reporting compared to previous elections.
Voter Turnout Among Key Demographics
High turnout among Black and Hispanic voters could significantly impact the outcome in Pennsylvania. Conversely, rural areas are expected to show strong support for Trump, making turnout critical in these regions. Biden won Pennsylvania’s 19 Electoral College votes in 2020 by a narrow 1.2% margin after Trump had previously carried the state in 2016.
Shifting Polls in Iowa and “Safe” States
While Harris and Trump each hold leads in key states on their respective maps, recent polling in traditionally Republican Iowa has raised eyebrows. A Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll released Sunday showed Harris with a 3-point lead over Trump, a surprising shift in a state where Trump previously led by 18 points in June. Although Iowa is not seen as a bellwether, this shift highlights gender gap issues and the significance of suburban and rural areas in swing states.
What to Expect on Election Night
As results start coming in Tuesday night, early returns from swing states like Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania will be closely watched for clues. With high voter interest and competitive races in key states, Election Day 2024 is set to be a defining moment for both campaigns as the nation awaits its next president.
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