Black voter turnout in North Carolina has dropped 10% among in-person early voters compared to the same period in 2020, according to AXIOS.
The decline could have significant implications for Vice President Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign, as Black voters are considered essential to her success in key battleground states like North Carolina and Georgia, where they make up a larger share of the electorate than in other parts of the country.
Of the more than 2.6 million North Carolinians who have voted in person so far, just over 481,000 are Black—a drop from 2020 levels, according to an AXIOS report.
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If Black voter turnout continues to lag, Harris’s chances of securing a win in North Carolina—and possibly the presidency—could be impacted. “This feels like a canary in the coal mine,” said Michael Bitzer, a professor at Catawba College, who noted that Black voter turnout has been an indicator of Democratic success in the state told AXIOS.
Black voters in North Carolina, especially in regions with high Black populations, play a “leverage vote” role, says LaTosha Brown of Black Voters Matter. In close races, strong Black turnout can be decisive. “If Black voters don’t come out, it’s a guaranteed loss,” Brown emphasized.
North Carolina’s Black voters played a pivotal role in delivering the state to former President Obama in 2008, with a record 72% turnout rate surpassing that of white voters. In 2020, 18.5% of voters were Black, but that dropped to 16.5% in 2022, echoing a recent trend of decreasing turnout.
Democrats are monitoring turnout closely. Over the past week, the gap between Black voter turnout in 2020 and this year has narrowed slightly, but it remains below previous levels. Harvey Gantt, Charlotte’s first Black mayor, expressed concern, noting that Democratic turnout is lagging despite strong candidates.
Overall, Democrats are trailing behind their 2020 turnout numbers, with 938,000 ballots cast so far compared to nearly 1.3 million at this point in 2020. Republicans, by contrast, have maintained similar numbers to 2020, with nearly 962,000 ballots cast.
The past weekend featured a major push to mobilize Black voters, including an appearance by Obama in Charlotte, as Democrats strive to close the turnout gap. However, as of now, Black voter turnout still trails 2020 levels, the outlet reported.
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