A new statewide poll in Florida by Cygnal shows Republican candidates leading among Hispanic voters, a shift that could be pivotal for Democrats’ chances in the Sunshine State.
Conducted between October 26 and 28, the poll of 600 likely voters revealed that former President Donald Trump captured more than 50 percent of the Hispanic vote, leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 10 points.
Senator Rick Scott also leads by 8 points in the Senate race, while Governor Ron DeSantis has a net favorable image of +14.
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Pollster John Rogers described the shift as a “death knell for Democrats’ political hopes in Florida,” noting that inflation, the economy, and immigration are top concerns for swing voters, with national Democrats’ emphasis on other issues like abortion not resonating as strongly.
“This was supposed to be the year Democrats expanded their influence in Florida, but the key voter groups are not aligning with their platform,” said Rogers.
Key Findings:
- Florida’s Rightward Shift: Trump holds more than 50 percent support, while Scott’s lead in the Senate race and a 5-point Republican advantage on the generic congressional ballot confirm Florida’s ongoing trend toward the GOP.
- Impact of Kamala Harris: Harris’s net image is underwater at -7, contrasting with Trump’s +2 and DeSantis’s +6, suggesting she may be a disadvantage for other Democratic candidates in the state.
- Top Issues: Inflation and the economy are top concerns, particularly among Hispanic and Independent voters, overshadowing Democratic policy priorities like abortion.
- Hispanic Voter Preferences: Hispanic voters favor Trump by 10 points in the presidential race and Scott by 8 points in the Senate race, a trend that could solidify Republican dominance in Florida.
- Independent Voters: Scott’s appeal extends to Non-Partisan Affiliated voters, where he leads by 5 percent, highlighting broader support in Florida.
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Poll Highlights:
- Presidential Race: Trump (48%); Harris (43%); undecided (5%)
- Senate Race: Rick Scott (49%); Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (45%)
- Voting Method: already voted (52%), early in-person (23%), Election Day (19%), absentee by mail (6%)
- Top Issues: inflation and the economy (26%), immigration (20%), threats to democracy (18%), abortion protections (14%)
Governor DeSantis holds a favorable rating of 52 percent, with Senator Marco Rubio at 45 percent favorable. Medicaid expansion also sees majority support, with 58 percent in favor.
With Hispanic support and key voter issues aligning in favor of Republicans, this polling indicates that Florida may remain securely red in the upcoming election.
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