CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten on Thursday broke down how either Vice President Kamala Harris or Republican nominee Donald Trump could win in a “blowout” victory, despite the polls showing a historically close race.
Whoever wins the 2024 election has a 60% chance of securing over 300 electoral votes and a 40% chance of winning less than that, despite the polls being very close, Enten said. Harris could possibly secure 319 electoral votes if she wins all seven key battleground states, while Trump would win 312 electoral votes if the results in those states go in his favor.
READ: Florida Sues U.S. Government Over State Investigation Halt In Trump Assassination Attempt
“If you look across the 7 key swing states, the 7 closest states, in all of them, the margin right now is under 2 points,” Enten said. “But keep in mind, polling ain’t perfect, my dear friends,” Enten said. “On average, since 1972 in the battleground states, the average error in the key swing states is 3.4 points. So if all of the battleground states all go in one direction, you could end up with a map like this for Kamala Harris where she wins all the key battleground states, including North Carolina, wins Georgia, wins Arizona, wins Nevada, she gets to 319. That’s even better than Biden did.”
“But, it could go in the other direction whereby Trump wins all the key Great Lake battleground states, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada and he gets to 312 electoral votes,” Enten continued. ”
Both Harris and Trump’s possible results would be better than President Joe Biden or the former president did when they won in the 2016 and 2020 elections, Enten said.
Enten said polling errors in all of the swing states have historically favored one candidate in past elections. The polls underestimated former President Barack Obama by 92% in 2012, Trump by 83% in 2016, and Trump by 100% in 2020.
“So this time around, don’t be surprised if the swing state polls, when they underestimate one candidate, they underestimate all of them in the states and that would lead to a relatively Electoral College blowout with one of the candidates winning at least 300 electoral votes,” Enten said.
READ: Israeli Strike On Iran Delayed After U.S. Intelligence Leak
A new poll published by the Wall Street Journal found Trump leading Harris nationally 47% to 45%. The former president also held a 0.8 point lead against Harris across every swing state as of Friday, according to RealClear polling averages.
Please make a small donation to the Tampa Free Press to help sustain independent journalism. Your contribution enables us to continue delivering high-quality, local, and national news coverage.
Android Users: Download our free app to stay up-to-date on the latest news.
Connect with us: Follow the Tampa Free Press on Facebook and Twitter for breaking news and updates.
Sign up: Subscribe to our free newsletter for a curated selection of top stories delivered straight to your inbox.
First published by the Daily Caller News Foundation.