Over the past year, Lebanese Hezbollah has suffered losses amounting to less than five percent of its original fighting force, according to recent reports. Estimates of Hezbollah’s strength vary widely, with Western sources suggesting between 20,000 and 50,000 fighters, while a 2021 claim by now-deceased Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah put the number at 100,000—an estimate that is likely inflated.
Recent tallies by the Critical Threats Project (CTP) and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have documented more than 600 Hezbollah fighter and commander deaths in the past year. Most of these casualties were a result of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) air campaign targeting Hezbollah positions in Lebanon. Up until late September 2024, when Israel intensified its airstrikes, Hezbollah had been consistently issuing mourning posts for its fallen fighters. Even after the group ceased these public notices, local sources have continued to report on fighter deaths.
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On October 5, the IDF announced that its forces had killed 440 Hezbollah operatives since beginning ground operations in southern Lebanon, bringing the estimated total Hezbollah fatalities to around 1,100. The number of additional fighters killed since then remains unclear. The IDF’s recent military operations, including a series of September attacks on Hezbollah’s communication infrastructure, have likely inflicted serious injuries on thousands of Hezbollah members, rendering them unfit for combat.
Despite significant losses and damage to its leadership, Hezbollah retains most of its lower-ranking fighters who continue to pose a threat to northern Israel and can still engage in combat operations against Israeli forces within Lebanon.
In recent developments, Israeli forces have reportedly gained control of several border areas in southeastern Lebanon. On October 10, Israeli journalists confirmed that the IDF 91st Division had established a presence in an unnamed village in the region. Israeli Army Radio noted that within a few days, Israeli troops secured control of villages near the border and are currently working to dismantle Hezbollah military infrastructure in those areas.
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Images published by journalists showed Israeli military equipment, including tanks, bulldozers, and Humvees, operating in southern Lebanese villages. There has been little evidence of significant resistance from Hezbollah fighters during these ground operations. IDF troops have encountered weapons caches and abandoned infrastructure previously used by Hezbollah, suggesting that the fighters had vacated the area. In one reported incident, Hezbollah fighters attempting to approach a warehouse seized by Israeli forces were killed.
According to an Israeli military commander, some Hezbollah militants have withdrawn further into Lebanon, while others have fled as Israeli forces advanced. The recent ground maneuvers have reportedly improved travel safety along the Israel-Lebanon border, making it less susceptible to Hezbollah attacks.
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