A new Emerson College Polling/RealClearPennsylvania survey reveals a deadlock in the 2024 presidential race in Pennsylvania, with 48% of voters supporting former President Donald Trump and 48% backing Vice President Kamala Harris.
Despite the tie, 50% of voters expect Harris to win, while 49% anticipate a Trump victory.
The Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race is similarly close, with 47% of voters supporting incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey and 45% backing Republican challenger David McCormick. Eight percent remain undecided.
“Casey holds a strong lead among voters under 50, with 53% to McCormick’s 37%, while McCormick leads among voters aged 50 and older, 51% to 43%,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Women favor Casey by 11 points (52% to 41%), while men prefer McCormick by eight points (50% to 42%).”
When asked which presidential candidate would better handle personal financial situations, 51% of voters believe Trump would be better, while 44% say Harris is the better candidate.
- Partisan Breakdown: 86% of Democrats believe Harris would improve their finances, compared to 10% favoring Trump. Among Republicans, 91% back Trump, while 6% prefer Harris. Independents lean toward Trump, 50% to 38%.
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The economy is the top issue for 50% of voters, with 60% feeling their financial situation is worse than five years ago, 22% saying it is better, and 18% reporting no change. A majority of Republicans (84%) and independents (65%) feel worse off, while a plurality of Democrats (39%) feel their situation has improved.
On the issue of fracking, 50% of voters trust Trump more to handle it, while 39% trust Harris, and 11% trust neither candidate.
- Approval Ratings: Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro holds a 47% approval rating, with 35% disapproving of his job performance. President Biden has a 38% approval rating, with 54% disapproving.
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