A new ABC News/Ipsos poll released Sunday, after the Harris-Trump debate, shows that while Americans widely view Kamala Harris as the debate winner, the overall dynamics of the 2024 presidential race remain largely unchanged.
According to the poll, 58% of Americans believe Harris won the debate, compared to 36% for Donald Trump. Despite this significant margin, voter preferences and perceptions of the candidates’ abilities and trustworthiness have barely shifted.
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The poll, conducted from September 11-13 among 3,276 adults, revealed that Harris did strengthen her personal appeal, with 37% of respondents saying they now view her more favorably following the debate. In contrast, 30% said the debate made them see Trump less favorably, with no significant gains for him.
Harris’ favorability gain was particularly strong among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, with 69% of them reporting a more favorable view of her post-debate, while only 34% of Republicans said the same about Trump.
Taylor Swift Endorsement Has Minimal Impact
Despite Taylor Swift’s recent endorsement of Harris, the pop star’s influence appears to have minimal effect on voter intentions. Only 6% of those surveyed said Swift’s endorsement made them more likely to support Harris, while 13% said it made them less likely, with the vast majority—81%—saying it made no difference. Those who were negatively impacted by the endorsement were overwhelmingly Trump supporters.
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Entrenched Voter Preferences
Even with Harris being seen as the clear debate winner, the race remains virtually tied. The poll shows Harris leading Trump 51-46% among all adults, 51-47% among registered voters, and 52-46% among likely voters. These figures are almost identical to pre-debate polling, reflecting the deeply polarized nature of the electorate.
With just 3% of likely voters indicating they are open to switching candidates, the election appears to be more about solidifying base turnout than persuading undecided voters.
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Both candidates retain strong support from their bases. Harris’ strong support has increased slightly to 62%, while Trump’s dipped slightly to 56%. Trump’s backing remains solid among key Republican demographics, such as white evangelical Protestants, who support him by 79-18%, and veterans, who favor him by 63-34%.
Issue Trust and Candidate Attributes
While Harris holds a slight lead in overall vote preferences, Trump leads on key issues like the economy and immigration, where he holds a 7-point and 10-point advantage, respectively. Harris, however, holds a 7-point lead on protecting democracy and a 9-point lead on health care. Both candidates are evenly matched on crime and safety.
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Harris also scores higher on personal attributes, with a 17-point advantage in honesty and trustworthiness, a 10-point lead in mental sharpness, and a 32-point lead in physical health to serve effectively as president.
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