A developing depression in the central tropical Atlantic is encountering a challenging environment, hindering its organization and potential strengthening.
According to the National Hurricane Center, the depression currently exhibits an asymmetric structure due to moderate west-northwesterly shear, with its center positioned west of the main convective clusters. Despite minimal change in organization, its intensity is estimated at 30 kt.
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The depression is expected to gradually turn westward by tonight and slow down as it moves across the central tropical Atlantic. A weakening in the subtropical ridge to the north will influence its track. By days 4 and 5, an amplifying shortwave trough is likely to cause the cyclone to crawl at very slow speeds and turn northwestward.
The dry air mass in the tropical Atlantic poses a significant obstacle for the depression’s development. While the official forecast still allows for the possibility of it strengthening into a tropical storm, the dry air is likely to hinder its convective activity. Global models even predict weakening over the weekend, with the GFS suggesting a potential degeneration into a remnant low.
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The National Hurricane Center’s forecast maintains the system as a tropical cyclone throughout the forecast period, but anticipates weakening in a couple of days. Some recovery might be possible later as the system moves into a slightly more favorable environment with increased moisture and reduced shear.
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