Recent reports indicate that Iran is attempting to play a significant role in the ongoing ceasefire-hostage negotiations between Israel and Hamas following the killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. According to sources cited by Emirati media, Iran has emerged as a “key behind-the-scenes player” in the negotiations, engaging heavily with Egyptian and Qatari mediators.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi have been in close communication with these mediators, reflecting Iran’s intent to exert influence over the outcome of the negotiations.
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This development aligns with assessments by the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War, which suggest that some elements within the Iranian regime may be attempting to delay a direct attack on Israel until the negotiations reach a conclusion.
Pezeshkian is reportedly advocating for alternative strategies, such as targeting Israeli bases in Iraqi Kurdistan and Azerbaijan, instead of launching a direct strike on Israel.
According to the Institute For The Study of War, an anonymous source in Lebanon further revealed that Iran has used the threat of an attack on Israel to secure a “bigger role in the Palestinian file,” though the specifics of this role remain unclear. The source also noted that Egypt has been working to delay an Iranian strike on Israel, possibly in exchange for granting Iran this expanded influence.
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Despite these diplomatic maneuvers, the U.S. and Israeli officials remain on high alert. U.S. National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby stated that Iran is “still postured and poised” to attack Israel, and the U.S. military will maintain its deterrent presence in the Middle East to protect both Israeli and American interests.
The ISW says that Iranian officials, including Deputy Defense Minister Brigadier General Hojatollah Qureishi, have issued warnings of an “unpredictable” response to Israel, further heightening tensions in the region.
As the situation continues to evolve, Iran’s involvement in the ceasefire negotiations adds another layer of complexity to an already volatile conflict, with potential implications for regional stability and international relations.
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