Following an atypical August marked by limited tropical activity in the Atlantic basin and the first Labor Day weekend without a named storm in decades, AccuWeather has revised its forecast for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season. This update makes AccuWeather the first known source to reduce the projected number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes.
Updated Forecast:
- 16-20 named storms
- 6-10 hurricanes
- 3-6 major hurricanes
- 4-6 direct impacts to the United States
AccuWeather remains the only source that has consistently provided hurricane season forecast updates since its initial forecast was issued in March, ahead of other known sources.
Read: NHC: Tropical Atlantic Stirring With Potential For Development
The updated forecast reflects the ongoing unusual conditions that have hindered tropical storm and hurricane development in the Atlantic. AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter highlighted the importance of this update, stating, “If the current lull continues deeper into September, reductions in the forecast number of named storms will be necessary, as a longer time period in the core of the hurricane season will have been devoid of named storms.”
Despite the revision, the forecasted 16-20 named storms still exceeds the historical average of 14 named storms in the Atlantic basin.
“AccuWeather meteorologists are continuously monitoring, refining, and integrating new data into our predictions. Today’s update reflects our commitment to providing the most accurate and up-to-date forecasts,” Porter explained. “This season has already been impactful and destructive. Hurricane Beryl made landfall along the Texas coast in July, and Hurricane Debby struck Florida’s Big Bend region in August, followed by a second landfall in South Carolina as a tropical storm. Our preliminary estimate of total damage and economic loss from Hurricane Beryl is $28-32 billion, while Hurricane Debby’s damage is estimated at $28 billion.”
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva noted the rarity of not having a named storm in the Atlantic basin over the Labor Day weekend, with the last occurrence recorded in 1997. He explained, “Unusual dry air, Saharan dust, and slower-than-expected progression to a La Niña pattern have caused more wind shear. Additionally, cold water off the western coast of Africa is disrupting the tropical wave train.”
Read :Colorado Researchers Raise Prediction For ‘Hyperactive’ 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Despite these factors, AccuWeather experts caution against complacency. With extremely warm waters across much of the Atlantic, conducive conditions for tropical development are expected to increase in the coming weeks. Porter emphasized, “We expect two to four more direct impacts to the United States this season. It only takes one powerful hurricane or slow-moving tropical storm to cause devastation. The warm waters near many U.S. coastal cities could fuel rapid storm intensification, making it crucial for everyone to be prepared for the threat of more storms this year.”
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