Recent polls from the New York Times and Siena College in the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada have once again brought attention to the challenges of polling accuracy, particularly regarding recalled votes from the 2020 presidential election between President Trump and Joe Biden.
The polls suggest a discrepancy in how the 2020 vote is remembered, potentially skewing the perceived lead of Kamala Harris in these states.
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For instance, in Georgia, the polling indicated an even split among registered voters on their recollection of the 2020 vote, which contrasts with the actual results where Biden had a narrow win.
According to the latest figures, Trump leads Harris by 7 points (51-44) in the 2024 matchup among registered voters in Georgia.
However, the situations in Arizona and Nevada differ significantly from their 2020 reported outcomes, suggesting that if the polls were reflective of the actual 2020 results, Trump would lead by 3 points in Arizona (50-47) and by 9 points in Nevada (53-44).
Despite these polling discrepancies, President Trump is reportedly gaining ground among key demographic groups, including black voters and young voters aged 18-29.
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He also appears to have more solid support among registered Republicans and those who voted for him in 2020 compared to Harris’s hold over registered Democrats and 2020 Biden voters.
These findings echo the pattern seen in the 2020 polls by the same organizations, which underestimated Trump’s support days before the election in these key battleground states.
For example, four days before the 2020 election, NYT/Siena polls showed Trump trailing in Arizona by 6 points (49-43), and eight days out, he was also shown trailing in Nevada by the same margin.
The last poll in Georgia, fifteen days before the 2020 election, indicated a tie, highlighting the ongoing challenges pollsters face in accurately capturing electoral dynamics.
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