Former President Donald Trump is polling higher against President Joe Biden by more than he has in the previous two presidential election cycles.
The RealClearPolitics (RCP) average shows Trump leading Biden by 3.8 points, his largest lead this cycle against the president.
The lead also far exceeds Trump’s record over the last two cycles, when he never led Biden in the RCP average and was only ahead of Hillary Clinton twice in 2016.
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According to the RCP average, the former president has maintained a 3.8-point lead over Biden since Wednesday, surpassing his previous 3.5-point lead from Tuesday and mid-December. Biden has not led in the RCP average since early September.
According to the RCP’s survey compilation, Trump has already led Biden in more than 100 polls for the 2024 election cycle. The former president only beat Biden in five 2020 polls and defeated Clinton in 29 surveys during the 2016 election.
According to the RCP average, Biden led Trump by 4.3 points and Clinton by 2.7 points in the previous two cycles.
A Messenger/Harris poll released on Wednesday showed Trump leading Biden 48% to 41%, with 11% undecided. The poll shows a three-point increase in support for the former president since the previous survey was conducted earlier in January.
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In key battleground states such as Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and North Carolina, Trump leads Biden by several points in the RCP average.
Biden has a 0.6-point lead in Pennsylvania, while the two are tied in Wisconsin.
In both cycles, the former president won North Carolina while losing Nevada. Trump won the remaining five swing states in 2016, but lost them in 2020.
Trump won big in the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, with 51% and 54.3% support, respectively. Biden won the New Hampshire primary as a write-in candidate after declining to participate in the state due to the Democratic National Committee’s new calendar, prioritizing South Carolina.
The former president is the only major Republican candidate running for delegates in Nevada, as former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley will compete in the state-run primary on February 6 rather than the party caucus two days later.
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The South Carolina primary is next on February 24, and Haley is hoping to shore up support from her home state after being elected governor twice. While Haley finished third and second in Iowa and New Hampshire, she stated that the “race is far from over.”
The RCP average for a 2024 South Carolina primary, based on polls taken between October 18 and January 3, suggests Trump will defeat Haley 52% to 21.8%.
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