Former President Donald Trump appears to be trending ahead of President Joe Biden in a series of recent national and battleground state surveys ahead of a potential 2024 rematch.
According to recent surveys, Trump is beating Biden in several key swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and is leading anywhere from two to five points nationally.
Several polling analysts acknowledged that the former president appears to be leading Biden in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, but some aren’t convinced the trend is predictive of the 2024 outcome.
“There certainly has been a trend toward President Trump in the polls,” Nathan Klein, pollster for OnMessage Inc., told the DCNF. “The interesting thing is that it started around the end of September. I say this because my initial gut instinct was to cite the lack of leadership from Biden during the crisis in Israel. (Few voters make ballot decisions on foreign policy, but when it comes to strong leadership, there is a notable lack thereof from this White House. Or, perhaps I should say, from this Delaware Beach House.)”
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In Michigan, the former president is ahead of Biden by seven points, according to a Marketing Resource Group poll released on Oct. 10. Trump is leading Biden in Pennsylvania by 9 points, according to an Emerson College survey published on Oct. 11. Another Emerson College poll that came out the following day showed the former president ahead of Biden in Wisconsin 42% to 40%.
Another survey released in mid-October, conducted by Biden-supporting super political action committee (PAC) Unite The Country, found that Trump and Biden are tied at 50% across Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Among voters who hold negative views of both candidates, Trump held a three-point lead over Biden.
Trump won all three battleground states in 2016 against Hillary Clinton, but lost them to Biden in 2020
Across Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Trump is beating Biden by four points, according to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey released on Oct. 19. Individually polled, Trump is winning in all of the swing-states but Michigan, where he’s tied with Biden at 44%, and Nevada, where the president is up by three points.
Robert Cahaly, senior strategist and pollster at Trafalger Group, believes the trend is indicative of American voters souring on Biden as he continues to tout what he views as a positive economic record, as well as the current worldly affairs following the Hamas terrorist attacks on Israel.
“To me, having monitored it for a while, it doesn’t surprise me…It’s been a growing trend,” said Cahaly. “I think it is [predictive of 2024] because they haven’t understood to keep talking about ‘Bidenomics’ like it’s successful, when the average people are still suffering from inflation, is only driving their voters apart more.”
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Nationally, Trump is leading Biden anywhere from two points to five points, and is gaining ground among youth voters, according to recent polling.
Trump is ahead of Biden 46% to 41%, increasing his margin by one point, for a head-to-head matchup, according to a Harvard CAPS/Harris poll released on Monday. The same poll suggests his margin would grow against Biden by one point in a three-way race with newly-independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in the mix, and by two points in a four-way matchup with progressive candidate Cornel West.
A mid-October survey conducted by Hart Research Associates and Public Opinion Strategies found that Trump would beat Biden by four points. Another poll, which was released on Oct. 10 and conducted by The Messenger/HarrisX, indicated Trump leading Biden 45% to 41%. The former president is also beating Biden by three points in a Premise poll published on Oct. 15.
An Emerson College poll released on Friday, which found Trump leading Biden by two points, showed the former president is also faring better among a young electorate. Trump is ahead of Biden by two points among those aged 18 to 29, and 11 points among 30 to 39-year-old voters.
Kyle Kondik, nonpartisan polling analyst and managing editor for Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, believes it’s too early for these polls to be predictive of 2024, and cautioned about the youth voting numbers in the survey.
“However, it is also true that a number of polls are showing this. Trump is also polling better than he has in the past – it may be in part because Biden is unpopular, and voters are looking at the election as more of a referendum on him than as a choice between Biden and Trump. Biden is going to want this election to be more of a choice,” said Kondik. “My own take is that 1. The polls are rosier for Trump than I think reality would be but 2. This is a very narrowly divided country and we may have two fairly unpopular presidential nominees next year, which means we should expect a close and competitive election once again.”
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Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research, also isn’t convinced that the series of recent polling indicating Trump is favored against Biden is indicative of the 2024 outcome.
“Overall, these polls point to voters’ dissatisfaction with the direction of the country generally and the state of the economy specifically. No matter what numbers an economist might point to, if voters hear the question, ‘Are you better off now than you were four years ago?’ the resounding response is, ‘No!’ Voters think about their pockets first, and they’re not happy, so these swing states are moving to former President Trump,” McHenry told the DCNF. “While the polls certainly favor Donald Trump, it’s too early to say they are predictive. We don’t know for sure if Republicans will nominate Trump.”
The RealClearPolitics average for a 2024 national Republican and Democratic primary, based on the most recent polling, suggest Trump and Biden are leading their respective fields by roughly 47 points and 61 points, respectively.
Other recent polls suggest a potential general election between Trump and Biden is a dead-heat matchup, with others indicating Biden is narrowly ahead.
A national USA Today/Suffolk University survey released on Monday showed the two tied at 37%, with Kennedy’s candidacy costing Trump the election. A mid-October Economist/YouGov poll indicated that Biden is up against Trump by one point. An NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist survey conducted on Oct. 11 found that Biden is leading by two points.
Biden is tied with Trump in Michigan at 41% and is leading the former president by one point in Pennsylvania, according to a Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll released Oct. 15.
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“When you take all the polls into account, you have a very close race that either side could win or lose. Add to that the uncertainty of current world conditions, Trump’s legal jeopardy and the existence of third candidates and you have an election that can’t be predicted,” Ron Faucheux, president of nonpartisan polling firm President of Clarus Research Group, told the DCNF.
Neither Trump nor Biden immediately responded to the DCNF’s requests for comment.
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