A new survey of likely voters in Georgia’s Senate runoff election reveals that Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican ex-athlete Herschel Walker are statistically tied, showing little movement from the Nov. 8 general election ahead of the runoff election day.
The survey, conducted by a consortium of pollsters led by COMPETE Digital, a progressive organization, reported that 50% would vote for either candidate. It paints the runoff as a true tossup just days before the election.
The survey showed Warnock leading among independent voters, gaining 52% of support, while Walker led among supporters of Libertarian Chase Oliver, gaining 67% of support. Oliver’s vote share, 2.1% or 81,278 votes, denied Walker and Warnock 50% outright, leading to the runoff.
The runoff is the last major election of the 2022 midterm cycle yet to be decided. Though the Senate majority has already been retained by Democrats after Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman’s victory in Pennsylvania flipped a Senate seat, Warnock’s seat is a must-win for the GOP if it seeks to limit the Biden administration’s agenda in the Senate.
Between 2021 and 2022, despite being in the majority with Vice President Kamala Harris’s tiebreaking vote, Democrats were unable to pass major progressive legislation such as the Build Back Better Act, which contained significant social spending, and the For The People Act, designed to federalize election regulations across the United States.
The caucus neither had 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, nor 50 votes to change Senate rules and create issue-specific exceptions to the filibuster, which were opposed by Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and, in some cases, Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona.
Should Warnock win, Democrats will increase their Senate tally to 51 votes, enabling them to modify the filibuster over Manchin’s opposition. Democrats in the House of Representatives, such as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, have called on Senate Democrats to “abolish the filibuster.”
Biden’s agenda will remain hampered, however, following the GOP wresting control of the House of Representatives from Democrats.
Turnout in runoff elections is generally lower than in general elections, making “get out the vote” efforts to return original supporters to vote essential, per former Georgia State Senate President pro tempore Eric Johnson.
“It’s all about turnout. I went to vote today in Effingham County (70% Trump) and the line was too long. I’ll vote later,” he wrote to the Daily Caller News Foundation.
The survey polled 939 likely Georgia voters and had a margin of error of 3.1%. Walker and Warnock did not immediately respond to a request for comment
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