A sweeping new analysis by Blue Rose Research offers a sobering postmortem on the 2024 presidential election, identifying shifting political coalitions, economic discontent, and a growing ideological divide as key reasons President Donald Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris.
The 33-page report, titled 2024 Retrospective and Looking Forward, combines election results, survey data, and internal modeling to map voter behavior and uncover underlying trends that shaped the outcome.
The findings suggest a profound realignment of the U.S. electorate—especially among young voters, naturalized immigrants, and politically disengaged Americans, who leaned heavily toward Trump.
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“Voters told us what they cared about—and overwhelmingly, it was the cost of living,” the report notes. “The challenge for Democrats wasn’t just turnout—it was that a larger electorate meant a more Republican one.”
Key Takeaways from the 2024 Election:
1. Trump Wins Expanded Electorate
Among all 2024 voters, Trump won 50.7% to Harris’s 49.3%, according to Blue Rose’s final model. If every registered voter had cast a ballot, the margin would have grown: Trump 52.4%, Harris 47.6%.
- Less-engaged voters, once thought to lean Democratic, swung toward Trump by significant margins.
- Naturalized citizens—10% of the electorate—flipped from Biden +27 in 2020 to Trump +1 in 2024.
2. Cracks in the Democratic Coalition
Support among Hispanic and Asian voters, particularly moderates, continued eroding from 2016 through 2024. Harris lost significant ground among key Democratic blocs:
- Hispanic moderates: down 12 points from 2020
- Asian moderates: down 9 points
- Black conservatives: down 2 points
- Young voters overall trended Republican, with only women of color under 26 giving Harris majority support.
3. Gender and Age Gaps Grow
Among voters under 25, the gender gap in Democratic support doubled to nearly 20 points. While women remained more likely to back Democrats, young men—across racial groups—increasingly supported Trump.
“The gender gap among Gen Z voters is not just real—it’s widening,” the report warns.
4. Democrats Viewed as Out of Touch
While Trump’s favorability in 2024 mirrored 2020 levels, the difference was that Democrats became unpopular too, particularly among working-class and minority voters who felt unheard.
Blue Rose found that 49% of voters saw Harris as “more liberal than me,” compared to just 7% for Trump.
“The electorate believed Trump better understood how to make their lives better,” the report stated. Among all voters, 43% said only Trump showed he could improve their lives, versus 32% for Harris.
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Key Issues Driving the Shift:
Cost of Living Dominated Voter Priorities
- 94% of voters said cost of living was more important than issues like LGBTQ rights or student debt.
- Voters trusted Republicans more on economic issues by wide margins.
- Messaging that connected directly to voters’ economic struggles performed best—ads focusing on groceries, rent, wages, and taxes were among the most effective.
AI and Future Economic Anxiety
Looking ahead, the report notes that rapid advancements in AI will likely reshape the political landscape even further. Blue Rose’s data found:
- 64% of voters believe AI will soon outperform humans at most jobs.
- 79% see that change as a net negative.
- Jobs most at risk from AI tend to be concentrated in Democratic-leaning professions and urban areas, suggesting long-term political headwinds for Democrats if solutions aren’t proposed.
Popular vs. Unpopular Trump Policies
Despite Trump’s win, Blue Rose identified significant vulnerabilities in his policy agenda:
- Popular policies: No tax on tips, voter ID requirements, military deployment at the border.
- Unpopular policies: Cuts to Social Security, Medicaid, ACA; tariffs raising consumer prices; and giving Elon Musk unchecked control over federal programs.
“Democrats’ most persuasive messages centered on Trump’s cuts to Medicare and Social Security, and his alignment with billionaires at the expense of working families,” the report said.
Looking Ahead: A Warning and a Challenge
The report closes with a stark message for Democrats: Negative views of the party, not just Trump’s strength, cost them the election.
“Losses are always over-determined, but the key reason Democrats lost in 2024 was widespread discontent with Biden’s handling of the economy and a sense that Democrats weren’t responding to voters’ real concerns.”
The authors call for a political reorientation focused on the economy, AI disruption, and rebuilding trust among swing and low-propensity voters—especially in working-class and immigrant communities.
“We cannot afford to fight the last war,” the report concludes. “Our coalitions are changing, the economy is changing, and we need to be ready to fight the next fight.”
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