As the 2024 election unfolds, Americans are watching what could be one of the closest races in modern history.
With early poll closures at 6 and 7 p.m. on the East Coast, initial results will offer insight into whether the political environment favors Democrats or Republicans, as well as the impact of key messages and demographic shifts.
Here are five early indicators to watch:
1. Early Signals in Indiana’s 1st District
Polls close early in parts of Indiana and Kentucky, with Indiana’s 1st District drawing attention as Democrat Rep. Frank Mrvan seeks re-election.
While outside spending has been minimal, if Republican underdog Randy Niemeyer pulls an upset, it could hint at a stronger-than-expected Republican performance nationwide.
READ: DOJ Agrees Not To Enter Texas Polling Locations After Legal Pushback From State AG Paxton
2. Virginia’s Suburban Battlegrounds
Two competitive Virginia districts, the 2nd (Virginia Beach) and the 7th (Fredericksburg), could set the tone for the evening.
Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans is favored in the 2nd District but faces Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal. A Kiggans loss would suggest a strong Democratic showing, potentially driven by messages around abortion rights, democracy, and extremism—core themes for both Cotter Smasal and Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign.
In the 7th District, Army veterans Democrat Eugene Vindman and Republican Derrick Anderson are competing for a seat vacated by Rep. Abigail Spanberger. Vindman, who played a role in Trump’s first impeachment, faces Anderson, whose campaign has faced controversy over a staged family photo. The outcomes in these districts will be an early gauge of suburban support, especially in swing regions.
READ: Florida Sen. Marco Rubio Raises Security Concerns Over PwC’s Ties To Chinese Communist Party
3. Black Voter Turnout in North Carolina’s 1st District
North Carolina’s 1st District, where polls close at 7:30 p.m. ET, is nearly 39% Black, making it a key area for Democrats to measure Black voter turnout.
The district, redrawn by Republicans, poses a challenge for first-term Democratic Rep. Don Davis against GOP candidate Laurie Buckhout.
High Black voter turnout is critical for Harris’s path to victory, while Trump aims to draw in young Black men, making the district a bellwether for voter motivations across the state and beyond.
4. Blue-Collar Appeal in Ohio’s 9th District
Ohio’s 9th District, with polls closing at 7:30 p.m. ET, is a test of Republican strength among blue-collar voters central to Trump’s coalition.
Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur, first elected in 1982, faces a strong challenge from GOP state Rep. Derek Merrin in this Toledo-based district, which Trump won by three points in 2020. If Kaptur performs well, it could signal Democrats’ ability to retain key swing districts, while a Merrin win would suggest strong support for Trump-aligned candidates.
READ: All Eyes On Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, And Iowa As Voters Head To The Polls
5. Suburban Women in Virginia
Virginia’s results may also reflect how suburban women view the presidential race. Democratic hopes hinge on Harris’s appeal to this demographic, and political analyst Christian Heines suggests that if Trump narrows Harris’s margin in Virginia to within seven points, it may foreshadow a favorable Republican trend in other battleground states.
Virginia’s early returns will be crucial in assessing suburban voter leanings on key issues, including abortion rights and economic security.
Please make a small donation to the Tampa Free Press to help sustain independent journalism. Your contribution enables us to continue delivering high-quality, local, and national news coverage.
Android Users: Download our free app to stay up-to-date on the latest news.
Connect with us: Follow the Tampa Free Press on Facebook and Twitter for breaking news and updates.
Sign up: Subscribe to our free newsletter for a curated selection of top stories delivered straight to your inbox.